四月初，川普再度對中國商品大幅加徵關稅，表面看似針對貿易逆差與選舉操作的「經濟牌」，實際上卻是一場更深層的國家安全策略行動。如果我們只看關稅與數據，將錯過他真正的核心策略：備戰與脫鉤；所針對的是他口中的「主要策略對手」──中國。
川普自2024年遇刺未遂，言行更具「使命感」，將「讓美國再次強大」的目標，從經濟優先升級為國安優先。他的行動也一以貫之：從國內安全出發，逐步擴展至全球佈局。
川普先清內部 再佈全球棋局
川普從上任第一天起，就大力整頓邊境與內部安全，打擊非法移民與毒品流入，並重新定義美國的盟友系統，重談NAFTA，對墨西哥、加拿大態度轉趨強硬。接著，他關注如巴拿馬運河、格陵蘭島、北極圈等戰略地點，這些雖非媒體焦點，卻是美國全球備戰體系的支點。
當內部與地緣佈局穩固後，川普轉向重塑全球聯盟。對歐盟、日本、韓國加徵關稅，並非單純經濟懲罰，而是要重申美國主導權與等價交換原則。他與其陣營傳遞的訊息明確：「我們不再免費保護盟友，所有合作需互利對等。」
中共早有佈局 多線操作反制
從歷史看，中共擅長化解外部壓力而不正面衝突，偏好透過內部分化與話語操控來反制危機。1937年盧溝橋事件、中共成功引導抗日焦點取代內鬥；2001年911事件，也讓中美緊張關係因美方轉向反恐，暫得舒緩。
但這一次，中共早已佈局。疫後即推出「內外雙循環」戰略，強化內需市場，並大力推動科技自主與產業升級，試圖在半導體、AI、能源等領域擺脫對美技術依賴。同時，中國也試圖建立自己的貿易同盟與關稅網絡，例如近期最高領導人接連訪問越南、馬來西亞、柬埔寨等國，意圖重構亞洲供應鏈，對沖美國主導的印太戰略。
可以預期的是，中共面對脫鉤與壓制，不僅會強化對內宣傳、對外強硬，還將透過多線操作反制——拉攏美國企業如蘋果、波音、摩根大通，利用TikTok影響年輕族群，並加大對歐洲與東南亞市場的市場滲透；對台灣則可能發動更強的輿論戰與統戰手段，激化島內對「中美對抗」的焦慮與裂痕。
不是關稅戰 是全球秩序之爭
川普打的不是短線政治牌，而是一場深層國際對抗的前奏；中共的反應也不會只停留在經濟報復，而將結合心理戰、輿論戰與區域整合。
在這場結構性對抗裡，台灣不能只是旁觀者。如果只盯著眼前關稅波動，而忽略這場大國競逐背後的深層邏輯與戰略佈局，終將在混亂中喪失選擇空間。這不是單純的貿易戰，而是一場關於「誰能定義未來秩序」的地緣博弈。(本文於英國同步推出）
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Is Trump Playing the Economic Card? No—This Is the Prelude to a National Security Conflict
In early April, former President Donald Trump once again imposed steep tariffs on Chinese imports. On the surface, this appears to be an economic maneuver targeting trade deficits and election optics. But in truth, it is part of a broader national security strategy aimed at preparing for confrontation and decoupling from what he sees as America’s primary strategic rival—China.
Since surviving an assassination attempt in 2024, Trump’s rhetoric has taken on a tone of mission and destiny: to make America great again by prioritizing security over economics. His actions reflect this recalibration—beginning with internal security and expanding to global positioning.
Securing the Homeland Before Redrawing the Global Board
From day one, Trump focused on domestic threats—cracking down on illegal immigration and drug inflows, tightening border control, and redefining America’s alliances. He renegotiated NAFTA and toughened stances toward Mexico and Canada. He then turned his gaze toward lesser-known strategic sites: the Panama Canal, Greenland, the Arctic—locations critical to a future Indo-Pacific theater of competition.
Once domestic and geopolitical security were reinforced, Trump pivoted toward restructuring America’s global alliances. Tariffs and pressure on the EU, Japan, and South Korea weren’t just about economics—they were about restoring U.S. dominance and enforcing reciprocity. His administration’s message was consistent: “We will no longer protect our allies for free—mutual benefit is the new doctrine.”
China’s Response: Historical Tactics Meet Strategic Modernization
Historically, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has responded to external pressure by dividing adversaries and avoiding head-on conflict. In 1937, it redirected national focus to Japan, reducing internal tensions with the Nationalists. In 2001, after 9/11, U.S. attention shifted to counterterrorism, allowing China a diplomatic reprieve.
But this time, China is already executing a long-term counter-strategy. Its “dual circulation” framework seeks to reduce dependence on foreign markets while boosting internal consumption. It has prioritized technological self-reliance and industrial upgrading, aiming to break U.S. dominance in key sectors like semiconductors, AI, and energy. Additionally, Beijing is actively pursuing regional trade partnerships and tariff alliances, as evidenced by recent high-level visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia—efforts to shape an alternative supply chain and buffer against U.S. decoupling.
Expect Beijing to respond with layered tactics: leveraging U.S. corporations like Apple and Boeing, manipulating public opinion via TikTok, and deepening economic ties with Southeast Asia and Europe. Simultaneously, it will intensify influence operations targeting Taiwan—spreading internal doubt and division over the escalating U.S.–China rivalry.
Conclusion: This Isn’t a Tariff War—It’s a Strategic Battle Over Global Order
Trump isn’t playing for headlines—he’s laying the groundwork for long-term strategic confrontation. China’s counterplay will likely involve psychological warfare, propaganda, and alliance-building, not just retaliatory tariffs. Taiwan cannot afford to remain a bystander in this structural rivalry. Focusing solely on short-term economic fluctuations without recognizing the deeper architecture of this confrontation risks surrendering agency amid uncertainty.
This is not about trade numbers—it’s a contest over who gets to define the future global order.
