全球永續發展正進入一個全新時代 —— 在這個時代中，碳排不只是氣候議題更成為貿易風險。2025年，全球關稅戰升溫，除傳統保護主義，越來越多關稅開始圍繞「碳排」與「永續政策」展開。對於像臺灣這樣，以製造出口為導向的經濟體，這樣的趨勢既是警訊也是轉機：要嘛快速轉型；要嘛被全球市場淘汰。
碳關稅浪潮席捲全球 臺灣生存戰
明年，2026年歐盟的碳邊境調整機制（CBAM）將全面實施，對碳密集型進口產品如鋼鐵、鋁、半導體課徵碳稅。與此同時，美國則推動清潔競爭法案（CCA），針對國內與進口工業產品實施碳定價制度。
這些政策不只為減碳，更為保護本地綠能投資與確保公平競爭。訊息很明確：碳排高，就得多付錢，不論是透過碳稅或關稅。
臺灣對出口高度依賴，面對這樣的變動意味著將承受巨大壓力。當80%以上發電仍仰賴化石燃料，94%出口來自製造業，減碳不再只是ESG的義務，在我看來更是維持貿易命脈的生存戰。
碳中和 vs. RE100：策略的分野
RE100指的是達到百分百再生能源的目標，雖是永續願景的指標，但對如臺灣這類地狹人稠、天然資源有限的國家而言，想要全面落實不僅困難，短期內要達成更幾乎不可能。
碳中和（Carbon Neutrality），相較之下提供臺灣更具彈性、可執行的解方。它允許透過碳信用市場、碳捕捉技術與國際減排合作，用以達標淨零排放。此刻，在全球碳定價壓力日增的背景下，碳中和不僅是策略選項，更是貿易存續的保險機制。
碳信用流通 下世代永續戰略核心
所謂「碳資產流通」是指透過碳吸存計畫，例如: 造林、土壤固碳、直接空氣捕捉等各種方式以產生碳信用，可以在全球高排放與低排放區域間，自由流通與交易。目前，這個機制已在COP29制定的國際標準中制度化。
碳資產流通不再只是企業的一種補償選項，而是正逐步成為全球減碳治理的支柱機制。我認為有降低貿易風險壓力、維持製造穩定性與引導綠色金融創新三大特色。其中，在降低貿易風險壓力上，透過購買國際碳信用，出口國如臺灣，可在不立即改變能源結構的前提下，抵銷碳關稅風險，維持全球市場競爭力。
就維持製造穩定性上來看，納入碳中和策略的企業能繼續供應蘋果、亞馬遜、谷歌等跨國企業產品，不被其2030年淨零供應鏈政策排除；在引導綠色金融創新上，碳信用逐漸成為可金融化資產，可做為綠色債券、碳掛鉤投資或碳金融衍生商品的基礎，勢將進一步引導潔淨能源與技術投資。
全球經濟主軸 碳市場權重將續升
根據 Bloomberg NEF 預估，到2050年，高品質碳信用價格將從目前每噸20美元上升至超過230美元；碳移除專案則可能達到170美元 / 噸以上；歐盟碳交易市場（EU ETS）則預測，到2040年，碳價將突破500歐元 / 噸。
看到這些，我必須提醒，這不僅是價格上的波動，更是閃現一個重要訊號，那就是碳市場正從邊緣選項，快速移向政策核心，並將成為未來全球的經濟主軸。
未來路徑明確 臺灣4關鍵抉擇點
對臺灣而言，未來路徑愈發明確。首先，RE100 是長期目標，但短期內應以碳中和為優先。其次，建立國家碳信用政策與交易機制，並與東南亞或中南美洲等碳信用供給國建立合作。
第三，對接國際碳市場標準，例如COP29，以確保信用透明度與可核查性。第四、加速中央與地方政策協調，推動再生能源與碳吸存項目能無礙推進。
碳資產流通 啟動臺灣的第三道路
全球正在邁向一個以「碳為價」的新貿易秩序。在這樣的背景下，像臺灣這樣的工業型經濟體，必須將碳資產流通視為主策略而非備案。同時有必要認清:
碳不再只是排放，而是一種資本。
碳市場不只是補償，而是競爭利器。
臺灣若能透過構建碳信用交易體系，不僅能躲避碳關稅風險，更能在綠色供應鏈中爭取優勢地位。更重要的是，碳資產流通能為臺灣創造一條可以兼顧經濟成長與氣候承諾的第三道路。
在這個全新的碳經濟時代，碳平衡表就是你的貿易護照。（本文與英國同步發表，英譯如下）
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From Trade Tensions to Carbon Markets: Why Carbon Credit Circulation Is Becoming the Backbone of Global Sustainability
By Howard Chia-Hao Chou / EcoStrategy, Taipei
The sustainability agenda is entering a new era—one where carbon emissions are not just a climate issue, but a trade liability. In 2025, global tariff tensions are escalating, not only around traditional trade protections, but increasingly around carbon taxation and emissions regulations. For manufacturing-dependent economies like Taiwan, this shift signals both a clear warning and a clear opportunity: adapt now or be left behind.
The Rising Tide of Carbon Tariffs
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is officially kicking in by 2026, charging tariffs on high-emission imports like steel, aluminum, and semiconductors. Simultaneously, the U.S. is pushing forward with its Clean Competition Act (CCA), introducing domestic and import carbon pricing on industrial goods.
These measures aren’t just about emissions—they’re about protecting green investments and leveling the playing field. The message is simple: if your carbon footprint is high, you’ll pay for it—either through direct emissions pricing or trade exclusion.
The implications are profound for export-heavy economies. Taiwan, where over 80% of electricity is still fossil-based and 94% of exports depend on manufacturing, now faces an urgent need to decarbonize—not just for ESG compliance, but to preserve access to global markets.
Carbon Neutrality vs. RE100: The Strategic Distinction
The traditional focus on RE100—100% renewable electricity—remains a noble goal. Yet for countries like Taiwan, full renewable transition is constrained by land availability, geography, and infrastructure bottlenecks. The result? RE100 becomes a long-term vision, but not an immediate solution.
Carbon neutrality, by contrast, introduces flexibility. It allows emissions to be offset through carbon credit markets, investments in carbon removals, and cross-border climate cooperation. And with the global carbon pricing landscape hardening, this flexibility could mean the difference between trade participation and economic isolation.
The Strategic Weight of Carbon Asset Circulation
Carbon asset circulation refers to the global flow of tradable carbon credits—generated by carbon sequestration projects (like reforestation, soil carbon, and direct air capture)—between regions that emit more and those that absorb more. This concept is now gaining institutional legitimacy, following COP29’s establishment of international carbon market standards.
Here’s how carbon asset circulation is evolving from an “offset option” to a strategic decarbonization mechanism:
1.A Buffer Against Trade Penalties:
By integrating carbon credit purchases into export pricing models, countries like Taiwan can neutralize tariff exposure under CBAM or the CCA—even without fully transforming their domestic energy systems.
2.A Tool for Industrial Resilience:
Manufacturing giants that embed carbon neutrality into their supply chains can continue doing business with firms like Apple, Amazon, and Google, which are now demanding net-zero emissions from suppliers by 2030.
3.A Platform for Finance & Innovation:
Carbon credits are not just compliance assets; they’re financial instruments. Green bonds, ESG funds, and carbon-linked investments now leverage carbon assets as monetizable resources to support clean tech development.
4.Forecasting the Weight of Carbon Markets
BloombergNEF estimates show that high-quality carbon credits could exceed $230/ton by 2050, with the voluntary carbon market potentially reaching $250 billion annually. Simultaneously, compliance markets like the EU ETS are forecast to push past €500/ton in the same time frame.
As these prices rise, so does the influence of carbon asset circulation in global policy and economics. What was once a marginal market is rapidly becoming a central mechanism for balancing emissions, trade policy, and industrial competitiveness.
Taiwan: At the Crossroads
For Taiwan, the strategic pathway is clear:
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RE100 should remain a long-term objective, but must be supplemented—urgently—with carbon neutrality strategies.
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A national carbon credit strategy must be developed, leveraging both domestic mitigation projects and international offset partnerships (e.g., with Southeast Asia or Latin America).
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Carbon market infrastructure should be established in alignment with COP29 protocols to enable transparent and verifiable trading.
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Policy reforms must streamline coordination between central and local governments, ensuring renewable energy and carbon offset projects don’t get mired in bureaucracy.
Conclusion: The Carbon Economy Is Not Optional
The world is moving toward a carbon-priced trade regime. That future will penalize laggards and reward adaptability. For Taiwan and similar economies, carbon asset circulation is not a secondary tactic—it is the bridge to survival and success in the next phase of globalization.
By recognizing carbon credits as strategic economic resources, and integrating them into national policy, corporate supply chains, and financial systems, Taiwan can lead—not lag—the global shift toward inclusive, market-driven, and resilient sustainability.
In short, the time to act is now. Because in the new global economy, your carbon balance sheet is your trade passport.
延伸閱讀
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- 前瞻碳市場整合 周家豪COP29談做法
- 碳中和引歐美碳權 周家豪：策略藍海
- 再生能源結合碳權 周家豪：勢在必行
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